Modeling Dengue Cluster Size as a Function of Aedes aegypti Population and Climate in Singapore
نویسنده
چکیده
In Singapore, a dengue cluster is defined as at least two cases located within 200 metres of each other, and whose dates of the onset of symptoms are within three weeks of each other. In 2000-2001, there were a total of 102 clusters with cluster size ranging from 2 to 29 cases. A nonlinear regression model of cluster size during this two-year period was developed using various entomological and climatic independent variables. The resultant model (R2 = 0.66882) was a combination of quadratic functions of the detected number of habitats positive for Ae. aegypti, the number of detected habitats positive for Ae. albopictus, and the average amount of rainfall one week before the cluster period. The model may be useful for assessing the risk of a large-sized cluster occurring in an area.
منابع مشابه
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